{sitelinkxoff}Let’s put this straight right away. If we go by the numbers, Zug should be the clear-cut favourites. They finished above the Grenats in almost every relevant category. Points, goals scored, goals against, shots for, shots against, faceoffs, save percentage, penalty-killing. Even the power play, the Bull’s problem child, is more efficient than Geneva’s, which finished the regular season as the league’s worst. Moreover, Zug has won all four regular season games in 2016-17 and two of the three past playoff-series against the Eagles.
Different runs of form
Nonetheless, there are some reasons that speak for Geneva. Their recent form – contrary to Zug’s - has been trending up. In the last ten games, they have earned 19 points (Zug has eleven), in large parts due to their newfound offensive efficiency and the return of several key players. One has to consider that McSorley’s team was playing for long stretches without key players such as Kevin Romy, Noah Rod, Nathan Gerbe – who all played only about half of the games –, Cody Almond, Daniel Vukovic and Jonathan Mercier. The stretch run of the regular season showed what they are capable of if they are playing with their best line-up. The importance of having a healthy line-up was also experienced by Zug, which had to cope without three of its top-four defensemen – Robin Grossmann, Timo Helbling, Dominik Schlumpf – towards the end of the regular season. This partly explains their recent slump. Both teams should be largely healthy – with the exception of Geneva’s Timothy Kast, who, ironically enough, will suit up for Zug next season and will thus miss the match-up against his future employer due to injury. The different runs of form, therefore, speak clearly for Geneva.
Big-games-mentality
Another reason that favours Geneva is their mental edge over Zug. In the last few years, McSorley has always been able to push his team to another level in the big games, especially in the postseason. Zug, however, hasn’t won a playoff series – not even a playoff game on home ice! – for three years and has been overwhelmed most of the games against the top teams from Zurich and Bern this season. Even though they won all games against Geneva in the regular season, the Bulls lost the one duel, which really mattered. The Grenats eliminated Zug from the Swiss Ice Hockey Cup in the semifinal at the beginning of January.
Comparing some match-ups and key factors
In the following, we compare the possibly important duels that might decide whose team will come out on top. Let’s examine goaltending/defense, offense, special teams and coaching.
Goaltending/defense
Both Tobias Stephan and Robert Mayer have posted very solid numbers during the regular season. Stephan has been a bit more consistent and won a few more games for his team than Mayer did, but his recent playoff-performances pose some question marks. Since Stephan led Geneva to the finals in 2010, he has won only one playoff-series (2014). Mayer, on the other hand, reached the semi-finals in both of his seasons with the Grenats and was outstanding last season. This postseason could be decisive in determining Stephan’s legacy among Zug’s all-time goaltenders.
As usual, McSorley’s team plays solid defensively and makes it difficult for opponents to get to the front of the net. Under Kreis, Zug has improved its defensive play drastically. Their defense corps is slightly deeper and stronger in driving play out of their own zone than Geneva’s.
Offense
After having a hard time finding the back of the net for long spells during the regular season, Geneva’s offense has heated up towards the end. Both teams can roll three balanced lines that are capable of deciding games and are led by strong two-way center icemen (Almond-Romy-Slater; Holden-McIntyre-Immonen). Whereas Zug’s forwards are a bit more skilled, the Grenats boast more physicality. Furthermore, Geneva’s lines don’t seem to be as set as Zug’s, which have been together for almost the whole regular season. Might McSorley create a spark with line changes and surprise Kreis with certain match-ups?
Special teams
Zug holds an advantage both on the PP as well as with the PK. Both PP’s haven’t been convincing, however. Whoever gets its special teams going has a huge advantage. Directly connected to the play of the special teams is the importance of staying out of the penalty box. Both teams ranked among the league’s most penalized teams, so discipline might be an issue. There are many hot-tempered players that play with an edge and will try to get under their opponents’ skin. This series could very soon turn very emotional, ugly and exhausting for the league’s single judge. Whoever can control his emotions better and stay out of the penalty box, will likely win this series.
Coaching
McSorley always seems to find a way to make his team as tough to play against as possible come playoff-time. It likely won’t be any different this year. His coaching style is much more active than Kreis’ and pushes the players over their limits. This shows in the advancement to the semifinals in each of the past three years and his two appearances in the finals (2008 und 2010).
Kreis, on the other hand, seems to have lost his magical touch in the postseason in the last few years. He likes to trust his players and hold onto his system. It might be necessary, however, to counter McSorley’s aggressive coaching by tweaking some line combinations or create favourable match-ups for his best players. Let’s not forget that Kreis knows how to win decisive games, as he proved with his two championship wins with Lugano in 2006 und Zurich in 2008. This might be his last chance in Zug to rediscover his playoff magic.
Conclusion
This might well be a very tactical and physical defense-first match-up. But don’t be surprised if some players lose their temper and the series turns into a Wild West battle with lots of work for the single judge. If Stephan is on top of his game and Zug’s best players stay composed, the Bulls will break their playoff curse and advance – in six games.
